The Cheltenham Festival is beginning to come firmly into view and Telegraph Sport is here to help you sharpen up your punting portfolios ahead of the most exciting four days in jump racing.
Between now and the opening day of the meeting, Telegraph Sport will bring you a host of top selections from handicaps to the Gold Cup itself that will hopefully help you to turn a profit at the meeting.
Each week, new selections from our team of crack tipsters will be posted on this page along with advised prices. We will also offer you new trends every few days focussing on a different race at the meeting to further inform your selections.
Whistler tips
Tripoli Flyer (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – March 11)
advised each-way at 20-1
One of the horses we have already put up for the Supreme is Kopek Des Bordes after his 13 length romp at Leopardstown meaning he will be the highest rated runner going to this race since Altior.
The race may have one potential star but beyond him it does not look as a deep as it can be so the double figure price for Fergal O’Brien’s six-year-old who has won his last three starts now looks good each-way value.
His seven and a half length beating of Miami Magic, a very useful yardstick, in the Dovecote at Kempton puts him in with an excellent shout.
Already tipped
Telegraph Sport tips
Golden Ace (Mares’ Hurdle – March 11)
win at 7/1
This looks big one of the bets of the meeting but it is still contingent on race plans falling the right way. Brighterdaysahead is a worthy favourite for the race but looks likely to go to the Champion Hurdle, while connections of Lossiemouth remain committed to that target as well – at least for now.
Even if the latter did pitch up here, I’d like the chance to take her on on the back of a heavy fall at Leopardstown earlier this month.
Golden Ace bounced back to form at Wincanton in the Kingwell, showing excellent stamina reserves to wear down favourite Burdett Road. She is already a festival winner (last year’s mares’ novice) and looks primed for a strong end to the season with trainer Jeremy Scott seemingly coming out of tough patch with his runners.
Other Irish mares will likely be a shorter price even if the big two go for the Champion but this is one race in which Britain might just hold the edge.
Already tipped
Big-race trends
Tuesday
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
Opening race of the meeting and one that often sets the tone for much of action on the course for the week to come.
There are both key things to ignore and key things to factor into your selection here. Winners in the last 12 years after all been five or six years of age, bar one, while ten of those winners were also successful last time out.
Eight of the last 12 winners were trained in Ireland, with five of those winning the Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown the month before the meeting.
Less important is course form (this always tends to be the case in novice races) but it is still worth noting that only four of the last 12 winners had run at Cheltenham before taking the race.
Arkle Novices’ Chase
A race in which it has paid to note the top of the market in recent seasons, with all but one of the last seven winners returning as favourite and 11 of the last 12 winning on their run prior to the festival.
This race is one for precocious, talented jumpers, with nine of the last 12 winners rated at 157 heading into the race and with ten of those 12 boasting at least one win at Grade 1 or Grade 2 level heading into the contest.
If there is one race at the Cheltenham where the trends offer up a compelling case for a winner time and again, this is it.
Champion Hurdle
Check the top of the market. Ten of the last 12 winners of the Champion Hurdle have been sent off favourite or joint-favourite, with only one during that time returning at double-figure odds.
As you’d expect with the above stat in mind, 11 of the past 12 winners won on their last run prior to the festival, with the same number having had at least one run at Cheltenham before. Eight of the last 12 have at least one win at Cheltenham.
Age is also a consideration, with ten of the last 12 being between six and eight.
Wednesday
Turners Novices’ Hurdle
Another race where market prominence is a big factor. Ten of the last 12 have been sent of either favourite or joint-favourite with ten also having been trained in Ireland.
In what is are important considerations for novice races, every winner had at least 2 runs over hurdles, with 11 of winners boasting at least two wins over hurdles coming into Cheltenham.
Something to pay less attention to is course form, with just three winners having run at Cheltenham before – not a surprise given it’s a novice race and has been dominated by Irish horses.
Brown Advisory Novice Chase
Previous course form is the name of the game here. 11 of the past 12 winners have won at Cheltenham before winning again in this Grade 1.
It is also worth noting that 10 of the last 12 winners had won over the distance before, a stat that will be tested now that the two-and-a-half mile Grade 1 novice chase is no more.
This is also a race in which horses arriving fresh should be treated with caution. Every single winner in the last 12 years had at least one run in the 77 days before the festival.
Queen Mother Champion Chase
A race where it pays to be wary as a punter. Only five of the last 12 winners have been sent off favourite, though 11 of the last 12 where in the top three in the betting.
A prep-race to note is the Clarence House Chase at Ascot, which has been won by seven of the last 12 winners. The race this year was won by the market-leader Jonbon.
Despite the relatively poor record of favourites in the race, it is worth noting that 11 of the last 12 winners has at least won a Grade 1 chase.
Thursday
Mares Novices Hurdle
A tough race to get a handle on from a trends perspective due in large part to that there have only been nine runnings.
What we do know is that six of those nine were last-time-out winners before winning the race. Other than that, this might be a race where you need to dip into form reading skills.
Ryanair Chase
Open race so age is a consideration here and all of the last 12 winners have been between the ages of seven and nine, with nine of those 12 having at least one win at Cheltenham before winning the Ryanair.
Look for quality horses also, with 11 of the last 12 winners having been rated 162 or higher before running and the nine of those 12 having at least one win in a Grade 1.
Stayers’ Hurdle
Key metrics here are pre-race rating and success at the trip. A total of nine of the last 12 winners were sent off with a rating of at least 154 – which is plenty high enough for a staying hurdler.
It is also worth noting that nine of the last 12 winners have at least one win at three miles or further. It can be a risky strategy to roll the dice on a horse which has yet to prove himself at the trip.
In terms of trials, Cheltenham’s Cleeve Hurdle is a decent yardstick, having produced four winners in the last 12 years. This year’s winner was Gowel Road, who looks set to take his chance.
Friday
Triumph Hurdle
Nine of the last 12 winners were trained in Ireland, with each of those having run in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown – four of those won that race, the other four placed.
Being a juvenile race, experience is something to consider here, with 10 of the last 12 winners having at least two previous runs over hurdles – a further 11 of those had at least one win over hurdles.
Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle
Stay away from the top of the market in this one. Just one of the last 12 winners returned as favourite, with just one more winning after being sent off in the top three in the betting.
This is another race, much like the Stayers’ Hurdle, in which being tried and tested at the trip is paramount. All but one of the last 12 winners have won at least once over three miles.
Cheltenham Gold Cup
The big one and a race in which it has paid off to back favourites on the whole. Eight of the 12 winners have returned as favourite, with nine of the last 12 winning last time out before Cheltenham.
The Irish Gold Cup has been the best form line for the race, producing five of the last 12 winners. That race was won this year by Galopin Des Champs, who won the Irish equivalent before both of his prior Gold Cup victories.
One more thing, every winner in the last 12 runnings was between seven and nine – this is not an old man’s game.
Ready to place your bets on the Cheltenham Festival? First take a look through these Cheltenham free bets and Cheltenham betting offers to use throughout the four days at Prestbury Park.
